Democrats give Iowa the deserved heave-ho out of its early state status, elevate Georgia and Michigan to First Five early state status

Iowa's days of being first are over for the Dems

Dec 05, 2022

Iowa’s days of being afforded the privilege of going first in the Presidential primary elections are about to be over, as the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee, at the request of President Joe Biden, approved a plan for a new list of early states, known as the First Five states. The full body will still need to vote for it early next year.

This comes in the wake of the 2020 Democratic Iowa Caucus snafu that delayed the counting and the winner(s), in which both Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg won. Sanders won on first and final preference allocations, while Buttigieg very narrowly won on the state delegate equivalents.

Alex Seitz-Wald at NBC News:

WASHINGTON — Democrats advanced a plan Friday to reorder the early voting states in their presidential primary calendar, one that would put South Carolina first, jettison Iowa and demote New Hampshire.
At a meeting in Washington, a key panel at the Democratic National Committee approved the proposal, which was put forward by President Joe Biden a day earlier. The only dissent came from representatives of Iowa and New Hampshire.
The overhaul calls for South Carolina to hold its Democratic primary on Feb. 3, followed by Nevada and New Hampshire on Feb. 6. Georgia would hold its primary on Feb. 13, with Michigan rounding out the early voting on Feb. 27.
The new calendar still faces hurdles before it is adopted. Numerous states were caught off guard by the White House proposal, which makes more dramatic revisions than had been expected.

Ben Jacobs at Vox:

The new schedule puts South Carolina first on Saturday, February 3, 2024, a move that came as a surprise to top Democrats in the Palmetto State. The draft calendar then has New Hampshire and Nevada three days later on February 6, followed by Georgia on February 13 and Michigan on February 27. The full Democratic National Committee will almost certainly ratify this calendar early next year.
This means that the Democratic nominating contest will begin with South Carolina, the only state where Tom Steyer in 2020 and Al Sharpton in 2004 have finished in the top three in a presidential primary. However, it’s likely to set off a chaotic scramble over which state goes first.
National political parties don’t determine when states hold their nominating contests. That’s the subject of state law. However, national parties are fully within their rights to sanction states that don’t follow their rules for how to hold nominating contests, or throw out the results altogether.
In advance of rolling out this new schedule, the Democratic Party already added more teeth to its ability to crack down on states that buck the DNC to hold nominating contests earlier in the primary. Recent rules changes give the party more latitude to crack down on candidates who campaign in states that hold unsanctioned contests.
[…]
In the Republican presidential primary, Iowa is maintaining its traditional role as the first nominating contest and there is no reason that state Democrats couldn’t ignore the DNC and go at the same time. The entire national media will already be camped out in the state and any contest will receive significant coverage even if the caucuses would amount to no more than a glorified beauty contest.
The new rules also implicitly target New Hampshire and set up a conflict where the state legally cannot abide by the DNC’s rules. Under state law, New Hampshire’s primary must go first in the nation, seven days before any other state. (Iowa does not conflict with this because a caucus is deemed sufficiently different from a primary.)

The new list of the early states, known as the First Five states:

South Carolina, 02.03.2024
New Hampshire and Nevada, 02.06.2024
Georgia 02.13.2024
Michigan, 02.27.2024

South Carolina will lead off the 2024 Democratic Primary that is likely to be a Biden sweep if he runs again and a competitive one if he doesn’t. It is the state that saved Biden’s bacon in the 2020 primary and that parlayed him into the nomination and ultimately the Presidency.

New Hampshire, which served as the first primary and 2nd overall contest to be held, will now share the 2nd First Five primary contest window with Nevada, who threw out its caucus in favor of the primary.

Georgia occupies the 3rd First Five primary contest window.

Michigan serves as the 4th and final First Five primary contest window.

Tom Barton and Caleb McCullough at The Cedar Rapids Gazette on the impact of Iowa no longer being first in line:

Iowa is known nationally mostly for corn and caucuses. Now maybe just the corn.
The Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee approved a new calendar Friday for its presidential nominating process — taking away Iowa’s first-in-the-nation status and moving it out of the early window entirely.
The move, designed to give people of color a more prominent role in the presidential nominating process, could have huge ramifications for Democratic politics in Iowa and the national campaign process.
For both parties, Iowa’s caucuses have served as the starting gun for the national presidential primary since 1972. Republicans this year kept the early states for their calendar intact, meaning that in 2024, Iowa still will hold the first nominating contest for the Republican presidential hopefuls, followed by New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.
[…]
If the DNC places South Carolina in the leadoff position, and Iowa and New Hampshire barge ahead in contravention of party rules to hold early contests, how will the DNC respond?
States can hold whatever presidential caucuses or primaries they like, but the national party is not obligated to recognize the results. The DNC rules committee passed rules Friday that would strip half of a state’s delegates if it holds a contest outside the required window, and allows the party to vote to remove all the state’s delegates entirely.
Will the GOP-controlled Iowa Legislature keep on the books the state law that requires holding caucuses and that Iowa be first? Wilburn acknowledged in his statement that the law would stand.
If it does, do Democratic Party precinct caucuses then become a straw poll or beauty contest, with no recognized effect by the DNC, forcing state Democrats to hold a separate, off-book meeting to comply with party rules?

Trip Gabriel at The New York Times on the impact on Iowa Presidential Caucus no longer going first in the calendar for the state’s Democrats:

DES MOINES, Iowa — Every four years since 1972, Iowa has stolen the national spotlight as presidential aspirants infiltrated its coffee houses, parades, living rooms, high school gyms, community centers and the pork-grilling pavilion at the state fair.
But after 50 years of being politically first-in-line — the site of caucuses that have been the Democrats’ initial contest on the presidential nominating calendar — one of the most idiosyncratic and consequential pageants in American elections has come to its likely end.
Democratic Party officials on Friday moved a step closer to making South Carolina the first nominating state of 2024, followed by Nevada and New Hampshire, Georgia and then Michigan. The radical shake-up of the old calendar has the backing of President Biden and is aimed at giving voters of color a more powerful voice in the party’s presidential process.
Iowa’s dethronement, which was not unexpected, has inspired a rush of emotions in the state — mourning, regret, nostalgia, reflections on Democrats’ weakening grip on the Midwest and a kind of who-are-we-now bit of soul searching.

[…]
Caucus defenders in Iowa have argued with the Democratic National Committee ahead of the reshuffling of the nominating calendar that while Iowa may lack racial diversity, its rural voters are a key constituency in the party’s coalition. To retreat from Iowa, their argument went, was to abandon a part of the middle of America dominated by white voters without college degrees, whom Democrats need to win back.

Adam Sexton at WMUR on New Hampshire no longer being the first primary on the calendar:

WASHINGTON —U.S. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-New Hampshire, and other lawmakers are blasting a proposal from the White House to move the South Carolina primary ahead of the New Hampshire primary.
[...]
Under the proposal from the White House, South Carolina's primary would go first, and New Hampshire and Nevada would share a date, with Georgia to follow, then Michigan.
“In New Hampshire, it doesn’t matter how much money you have, where you come from or who knows your name - in our primary, everyone has a fair shot. It’s tremendously disappointing that the president failed to understand the unique role that New Hampshire plays in our candidate selection process as the first primary state,” Shaheen said in a statement. “It’s a shame the White House’s short-sighted decision risks splintering attention from candidates, denying voters crucial opportunities to connect with candidates and hear their visions and policy priorities. As frustrating as this decision is, it holds no bearing over when we choose our primary date: New Hampshire’s State law stipulates that we will hold the ‘First-in-the-Nation’ primary. That status remains unchanged as we are bound by State statute. We look forward to hosting candidates in New Hampshire for the 2024 presidential primary and showing the country that we should continue to be entrusted with the ‘First-in-the-Nation’ primary that yields timely, reliable results with a process that levels the playing field for all candidates, regardless of clout or background.”
New Hampshire's small size, its political culture and its state law mandating its primary be held one week before any similar contest makes it hard to get rid of. U.S. Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-New Hampshire, said New Hampshire will still remain first, even if it faces sanctions.

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