My 2023/2024 Election Projections (11.06.2023)
My first installment of the 2023/24 Election Cycle Projections are now out, posted on Threads rather than on X (formerly Twitter). Maps are based off of 270ToWin. Editions have previously been put on Justin’s Political Corner on Tumblr, but for all editions beginning with this one, my Substack will be the originating home of these projections.
2023/2024 Gubernatorial Projections:
2023 Gubernatorial:
#KYGov: Tilt D
#MSGov: Lean R
#LAGov: Safe R [+R GAIN]
2024 Gubernatorial:
#DEGov: Safe D
#INGov: Safe R
#MOGov: Likely R
#MTGov: Likely R
#NCGov: Tossup
#NDGov: Safe R
#NHGov: Tilt R
#UTGov: Safe R
#VTGov: Likely R
#WVGov: Safe R
#WAGov: Safe D
2024 Presidential Election Projections:
2024 Presidential Map (241 Biden, 235 Trump, 62 Tossup; 226 ECVs in play):
Likely R: AK, FL, IA, NE-01, OH
Lean R: ME-02, TX
Tilt R: NC
Tossup: AZ, GA, NV, PA, WI
Tilt D: none
Lean D: MI, NE-02
Likely D: ME, MN, NM, NH, VA
Lean D > Tossup: NV
Tilt R > Likely R: FL
Tossup > Tilt R: NC
Tossup > Lean D: MI, NE-02
Lean D > Likely D: NH
Safe R > Likely R: NE-01
Safe D > Likely D: NM
Likely R > Lean R: ME-02
2024 US Senate Projections:
2024 US Senate (47 Dems, 50 GOP, 3 Tossups; 12 seats in play):
Likely R: FL, MO, WV [+R GAIN]
Lean R: TX
Tilt R: none
Tossup: AZ, MT, OH
Tilt D: none
Lean D: MI, NV
Likely D: NJ, PA, WI
2024 US House Projections:
(205 Dems, 207 GOP, 23 Tossup; 91 seats in play).
Next update: TBA.