My 2024 Election Projections (01.12.2024)
My 2nd installment of the 2023/24 Election Cycle Projections are now out, posted on Threads rather than on X (formerly Twitter). Maps are based off of 270ToWin.
Previous Update (11.06.2023):
My 2023/2024 Election Projections (11.06.2023)
My first installment of the 2023/24 Election Cycle Projections are now out, posted on Threads rather than on X (formerly Twitter). Maps are based off of 270ToWin. Editions have previously been put on Justin’s Political Corner on Tumblr, but for all editions beginning with this one, my Substack will be the originating home of these projections.
2024 Presidential Election Projections:
2024 Presidential Map (260 Biden, 235 Trump, 43 Tossup; 213 ECVs in play):
Likely R: AK, FL, IA, NE-01, OH
Lean R: ME-02, TX
Tilt R: NC
Tossup: AZ, GA, NV, PA, WI
Tilt D: PA
Lean D: MI, NE-02
Likely D: ME, MN, NM, NH
Changes from 11.06.2023:
Tossup > Tilt D: PA
Likely D > Safe D: VA
2024 US Senate Projections:
2024 US Senate (47 Dems, 50 GOP, 3 Tossups; 11 seats in play):
Safe R: WV [+R GAIN]
Likely R: FL, MO
Lean R: TX
Tilt R: none
Tossup: AZ, MT, OH
Tilt D: none
Lean D: NV
Likely D: MI, NJ, PA, WI
Changes from 11.06.2023:
Likely R > Safe R: WV
Lean D > Likely D: MI
2024 Gubernatorial Projections:
2024 Gubernatorial:
#DEGov: Safe D
#INGov: Safe R
#MOGov: Likely R
#MTGov: Likely R
#NCGov: Tossup
#NDGov: Safe R
#NHGov: Lean R
#UTGov: Safe R
#VTGov: Likely R
#WVGov: Safe R
#WAGov: Safe D
Changes from 11.06.2023:
Tilt R > Lean R: NH
Next update: TBA.