My 2024 Election Projections (09.08.2024)
My 3rd installment of the 2023/24 Election Cycle Projections are now out, posted on Threads rather than on X (formerly Twitter). Maps are based off of 270ToWin.
Since the last update, the Democratic Party has a different nominee, as Joe Biden announced on July 21st that he won’t run for re-election. Kamala Harris then became the replacement. Due to this, I have posted two Presidential scenarios.
My 2024 Election Projections (01.12.2024)
My 2nd installment of the 2023/24 Election Cycle Projections are now out, posted on Threads rather than on X (formerly Twitter). Maps are based off of 270ToWin.
2024 Presidential Election Projections:
With Biden as Democratic nominee (Hypothetical):
2024 Presidential Map w/ Biden (226 Biden, 283 Trump, 29 Tossup; 183 ECVs in play):
Likely R: FL, ME-02, NC
Lean R: GA, NV
Tilt R: MI
Tossup: PA, WI
Tilt D: VA
Lean D: ME, MN, NJ, NM, NE-02
Likely D: CO
Changes from 01.12.2024:
Likely R > Safe R: AK, IA, NE-01, OH
Lean R > Safe R: TX
Lean R > Likely R: ME-02
Tilt R > Likely R: NC
Tossup > Lean R: GA
Likely D > Lean D: ME, MN, NM
Safe D > Lean D: NJ
Safe D > Tilt D: VA
Tilt D > Tossup: PA
Lean D > Tilt R: MI
Likely D > Tilt D: NH
Safe D > Likely D: CO
With Harris as Democratic nominee:
2024 Presidential Map w/ Harris (241 Harris, 219 Trump, 78 Tossup; 192 ECVs in play):
Likely R: AK, ME-02
Lean R: TX
Tilt R: FL
Tossup: AZ, GA, NC, NV, PA, WI
Tilt D: MI
Lean D: NE-02
Likely D: ME, NM, VA
2024 US Senate Projections:
2024 US Senate (49 Dems, 50 GOP, 1 Tossup; 11 seats in play):
Safe R: WV [+R GAIN]
Likely R: MO, NE
Lean R: none
Tilt R: FL, TX
Tossup: MT, VP Seat
Tilt D: OH
Lean D: NV
Likely D: AZ, MI, PA, WI
Changes from 01.12.2024:
Safe R > Likely R: NE
Likely R > Tilt R: FL
Lean R > Tilt R: TX
Tossup > Likely D: AZ
Tossup > Tilt D: OH
Likely D > Safe D: NJ
2024 Gubernatorial Projections:
2024 Gubernatorial:
#DEGov: Safe D
#INGov: Safe R
#MOGov: Safe R
#MTGov: Safe R
#NCGov: Lean D
#NDGov: Safe R
#NHGov: Tossup
#UTGov: Safe R
#VTGov: Likely R
#WVGov: Safe R
#WAGov: Safe D
Changes from 01.12.2024:
Likely R > Safe R: MO, MT
Tossup > Lean D: NC
Lean R > Tossup: NH
2024 US House Projections:
2024 US House (207 Dems, 206 GOP, 22 Tossups; 79 seats in play).
Next update: Late September.