My 2024 Election Projections (10.18.2024)
My 4th installment of the 2023/24 Election Cycle Projections are now out, posted on Threads rather than on X (formerly Twitter). Maps are based off of 270ToWin.
2024 Presidential Map: Harris (D) v. Trump (R) (247 Harris, 219 Trump, 72 Tossup; 195 ECVs in play): Too close to call, but Harris has advantage (65% chance)
Likely R: IA, ME-02, TX
Lean R: FL
Tilt R: none
Tossup: AZ, GA, NC, PA, WI
Tilt D: MI, NV
Lean D: NE-02
Likely D: ME, NM, VA
Lean R > Likely R: TX
Tilt R > Lean R: FL
Safe R > Likely R: IA
Likely R > Safe R: AK
Tossup > Tilt D: NV
2024 US Senate (49 Dems, 51 GOP; 11 seats in play): Republicans gain majority (82% chance)
Safe R: WV [+R GAIN]
Likely R: MO
Lean R: FL, TX
Tilt R: MT [+R GAIN], NE
Tossup: VP Seat
Tilt D: OH
Lean D: MI
Likely D: AZ, NV, PA, WI
Tilt R > Lean R: FL, TX
Likely R > Tilt R: NE
Likely D > Lean D: MI
Lean D > Likely D: NV
Tossup > Tilt R: MT
2024 US House (208 Dems, 204 GOP, 23 Tossups; 79 seats in play): Too close to call, but Democrats favored to gain majority (69% chance).
Safe R > Likely R: AZ-02, SC-01
Likely R > Safe R: CO-05
Tilt R > Tossup: IA-03
Lean R > Tossup: IA-01
Tossup > Tilt D: NE-02
Tossup > Lean D: NM-02
Tilt D > Likely D: NY-22
Tilt D > Tossup: ME-02
Lean D > Likely D: NH-02, PA-17
Lean D > Tilt D: AK-AL
Likely D > Safe D: KS-03
2024 Gubernatorial Projections:
#DEGov: Safe D
#INGov: Likely R
#MOGov: Safe R
#MTGov: Safe R
#NCGov: Safe D
#NDGov: Safe R
#NHGov: Tossup
#UTGov: Safe R
#VTGov: Safe R
#WVGov: Safe R
#WAGov: Safe D
Safe R > Likely R: IN
Likely R > Safe R: VT
Lean D > Safe D: NC
Next updates: October 28th, and a final one on November 4th