My Final 2024 Election Projections (11.04.2024)
My 5th and final installment of the 2023/24 Election Cycle Projections are now out, posted on Threads rather than on X (formerly Twitter). Maps are based off of 270ToWin.
My 2024 Election Projections (10.18.2024)
My 4th installment of the 2023/24 Election Cycle Projections are now out, posted on Threads rather than on X (formerly Twitter). Maps are based off of 270ToWin.
Crunch time has arrived, as we are approaching the final hours of the 2024 elections run-in. This edition will featured both with and without tossup versions of the models.
2024 Presidential Map: Harris (D) v. Trump (R) (247 Harris, 219 Trump, 72 Tossup; 218 ECVs in play): Too close to call, but Harris has advantage (75.2% chance)
Likely R: KS, OH
Lean R: FL, IA, ME-02, TX
Tilt R: none
Tossup: AZ, GA, NC, PA, WI
Tilt D: NV
Lean D: MI
Likely D: ME, NE-02, NM, VA
Safe R > Likely R: KS, OH
Likely R > Lean R: ME-02, TX
Tilt D > Lean D: MI
Lean D > Likely D: NE-02
2024 Presidential Map: w/o Tossups: Harris (D) v. Trump (R) (319 Harris, 219 Trump): Kamala Harris wins the Presidency.
NC: R > D [+D GAIN]
2024 US Senate (48 Dems, 51 GOP; 11 seats in play): Republicans gain majority (88.4% chance)
Safe R: WV [+R GAIN]
Likely R: MO
Lean R: FL, TX
Tilt R: MT [+R GAIN], NE
Tossup: OH, VP Seat
Tilt D: none
Lean D: MI, PA, WI
Likely D: AZ, NV
Tilt D > Tossup: OH
Likely D > Lean D: PA, WI
2024 US Senate w/o Tossups (49 Dems, 51 GOP): Republicans gain majority (88.4% chance)
Flips from last Senate Election (2018):
MT, WV: D > R [+R GAIN]
2024 Gubernatorial Projections:
#DEGov: Safe D
#INGov: Likely R
#MOGov: Safe R
#MTGov: Safe R
#NCGov: Safe D
#NDGov: Safe R
#NHGov: Tossup
#UTGov: Safe R
#VTGov: Safe R
#WVGov: Safe R
#WAGov: Safe D
Changes from 10.18.2024:
NONE
2024 Gubernatorial Projections w/o Tossups:
Flips from 2020/2022:
NH: R > D [+D GAIN]
2024 US House (209 Dems, 203 GOP, 23 Tossups; 79 seats in play): Too close to call, but Democrats favored to gain majority (78.3% chance).
Competitive House Seats:
Likely D > Safe D: OH-01
Lean D > Likely D: IL-17
Tilt D > Lean D: NE-02
Tossup > Tilt D: AZ-01 [+D GAIN], CO-08
Tossup > Lean D: PA-07
Tilt D > Tossup: AK-AL, VA-07
Tilt R > Tossup: VA-02
Lean R > Likely R: PA-01
Safe R > Likely R: MI-01
2024 US House w/o Tossups (227 Dems, 208 GOP): Democrats gain majority
Summary
Kamala Harris (D) highly favored to win the Presidential election, with a 319-219 forecast in the no tossups version and 247-219 in the tossups included version.
Democrats favored to flip the House.
Republicans favored to flip the Senate.
Next updates: The 2025-2026 cycle.
So I guess you were a little off.