My Final 2024 Election Projections (11.04.2024)

My 5th and final installment of the 2023/24 Election Cycle Projections are now out, posted on Threads rather than on X (formerly Twitter). Maps are based off of 270ToWin.

Previous Update (10.18.2024):

Crunch time has arrived, as we are approaching the final hours of the 2024 elections run-in. This edition will featured both with and without tossup versions of the models.

2024 Presidential Map: Harris (D) v. Trump (R) (247 Harris, 219 Trump, 72 Tossup; 218 ECVs in play): Too close to call, but Harris has advantage (75.2% chance)

• Likely R: KS, OH

• Lean R: FL, IA, ME-02, TX

• Tilt R: none

• Tossup: AZ, GA, NC, PA, WI

• Tilt D: NV

• Lean D: MI

• Likely D: ME, NE-02, NM, VA

Changes from 10.18.2024:

• Safe R > Likely R: KS, OH

• Likely R > Lean R: ME-02, TX

• Tilt D > Lean D: MI

• Lean D > Likely D: NE-02

2024 Presidential Map: w/o Tossups: Harris (D) v. Trump (R) (319 Harris, 219 Trump): Kamala Harris wins the Presidency.

Flips from 2020:

• NC: R > D [+D GAIN]

2024 US Senate (48 Dems, 51 GOP; 11 seats in play): Republicans gain majority (88.4% chance)

• Safe R: WV [+R GAIN]

• Likely R: MO

• Lean R: FL, TX

• Tilt R: MT [+R GAIN], NE

• Tossup: OH, VP Seat

• Tilt D: none

• Lean D: MI, PA, WI

• Likely D: AZ, NV

Changes from 10.18.2024:

• Tilt D > Tossup: OH

• Likely D > Lean D: PA, WI

2024 US Senate w/o Tossups (49 Dems, 51 GOP): Republicans gain majority (88.4% chance)

Flips from last Senate Election (2018):

• MT, WV: D > R [+R GAIN]
  
  

2024 Gubernatorial Projections:

• #DEGov: Safe D

• #INGov: Likely R

• #MOGov: Safe R

• #MTGov: Safe R

• #NCGov: Safe D

• #NDGov: Safe R

• #NHGov: Tossup

• #UTGov: Safe R

• #VTGov: Safe R

• #WVGov: Safe R

• #WAGov: Safe D

Changes from 10.18.2024:

NONE

2024 Gubernatorial Projections w/o Tossups:

Flips from 2020/2022:

• NH: R > D [+D GAIN]

2024 US House (209 Dems, 203 GOP, 23 Tossups; 79 seats in play): Too close to call, but Democrats favored to gain majority (78.3% chance).

Competitive House Seats:

Changes from 10.18.2024:

• Likely D > Safe D: OH-01

• Lean D > Likely D: IL-17

• Tilt D > Lean D: NE-02

• Tossup > Tilt D: AZ-01 [+D GAIN], CO-08

• Tossup > Lean D: PA-07

• Tilt D > Tossup: AK-AL, VA-07

• Tilt R > Tossup: VA-02

• Lean R > Likely R: PA-01

• Safe R > Likely R: MI-01

2024 US House w/o Tossups (227 Dems, 208 GOP): Democrats gain majority

Summary

• Kamala Harris (D) highly favored to win the Presidential election, with a 319-219 forecast in the no tossups version and 247-219 in the tossups included version.

• Democrats favored to flip the House.

• Republicans favored to flip the Senate.

Next updates: The 2025-2026 cycle.